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 pregnancy outcome


Predicting Fetal Outcomes from Cardiotocography Signals Using a Supervised Variational Autoencoder

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: To develop and interpret a supervised variational autoencoder (VAE) model for classifying cardiotocography (CTG) signals based on pregnancy outcomes, addressing interpretability limits of current deep learning approaches. Methods: The OxMat CTG dataset was used to train a VAE on five-minute fetal heart rate (FHR) segments, labeled with postnatal outcomes. The model was optimised for signal reconstruction and outcome prediction, incorporating Kullback-Leibler divergence and total correlation (TC) constraints to structure the latent space. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and mean squared error (MSE). Interpretability was assessed using coefficient of determination, latent traversals and unsupervised component analyses. Results: The model achieved an AUROC of 0.752 at the segment level and 0.779 at the CTG level, where predicted scores were aggregated. Relaxing TC constraints improved both reconstruction and classification. Latent analysis showed that baseline-related features (e.g., FHR baseline, baseline shift) were well represented and aligned with model scores, while metrics like short- and long-term variability were less strongly encoded. Traversals revealed clear signal changes for baseline features, while other properties were entangled or subtle. Unsupervised decompositions corroborated these patterns. Findings: This work demonstrates that supervised VAEs can achieve competitive fetal outcome prediction while partially encoding clinically meaningful CTG features. The irregular, multi-timescale nature of FHR signals poses challenges for disentangling physiological components, distinguishing CTG from more periodic signals such as ECG. Although full interpretability was not achieved, the model supports clinically useful outcome prediction and provides a basis for future interpretable, generative models.


Closing the Gap in High-Risk Pregnancy Care Using Machine Learning and Human-AI Collaboration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-risk pregnancy (HRP) is a pregnancy complicated by factors that can adversely affect outcomes of the mother or the infant. Health insurers use algorithms to identify members who would benefit from additional clinical support. We aimed to build machine learning algorithms to identify pregnant patients and triage them by risk of complication to assist care management. In this retrospective study, we trained a hybrid Lasso regularized classifier to predict whether a patient is currently pregnant using claims data from 36735 insured members of Independence Blue Cross (IBC), a health insurer in Philadelphia. We then train a linear classifier on a subset of 12,243 members to predict whether a patient will develop gestational diabetes or gestational hypertension. These algorithms were developed in cooperation with the care management team at IBC and integrated into the dashboard. In small user studies with the nurses, we evaluated the impact of integrating our algorithms into their workflow. We find that the proposed model predicts an earlier pregnancy start date for 3.54% (95% CI 3.05-4.00) for patients with complications compared to only using a set of pre-defined codes that indicate the start of pregnancy and never later at the expense of a 5.58% (95% CI 4.05-6.40) false positive rate. The classifier for predicting complications has an AUC of 0.754 (95% CI 0.764-0.788) using data up to the patient's first trimester. Nurses from the care management program expressed a preference for the proposed models over existing approaches. The proposed model outperformed commonly used claim codes for the identification of pregnant patients at the expense of a manageable false positive rate. Our risk complication classifier shows that we can accurately triage patients by risk of complication.


Artificial Intelligence Company Helps IVF Patients Get Pregnant

#artificialintelligence

An Australian Femtech company with US headquarters in San Francisco announced new technology to help couples get pregnant via artificial intelligence-assisted in vitro fertilization (IVF). Life Whisperer is the fertility arm of Presagen, a global artificial intelligence company. The company, whose US headquarters is in San Francisco, announced in a press release new women's health technology applying artificial intelligence to the IVF embryo selection process. IVF clinics around the world can add an artificial intelligence platform to help doctors select the healthiest embryos with the best chance of success. Embryo selection is an important part of the IVF process, where the healthiest embryos are chosen for implantation.


Risks of Using Non-verified Open Data: A case study on using Machine Learning techniques for predicting Pregnancy Outcomes in India

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved considerably in the last few years. While applications of AI is now becoming more common in fields like retail and marketing, application of AI in solving problems related to developing countries is still an emerging topic. Specially, AI applications in resource-poor settings remains relatively nascent. There is a huge scope of AI being used in such settings. For example, researchers have started exploring AI applications to reduce poverty and deliver a broad range of critical public services. However, despite many promising use cases, there are many dataset related challenges that one has to overcome in such projects. These challenges often take the form of missing data, incorrectly collected data and improperly labeled variables, among other factors. As a result, we can often end up using data that is not representative of the problem we are trying to solve. In this case study, we explore the challenges of using such an open dataset from India, to predict an important health outcome. We highlight how the use of AI without proper understanding of reporting metrics can lead to erroneous conclusions.